![]() The Commanders lose two of their three remaining games (and no ties, either).The Giants lose all three of their remaining games (fat chance).Three of these four additional things must happen. In our scenario, the Packers win out and finish 9-8. Here's the bottom line of what the Packers need Therefore, this is an OK situation for the Packers assuming the current strength-of-victory tiebreaker with Detroit holds up. The first thing that happens here is a tiebreaker to determine one team from each division, so the Packers would theoretically beat out the Lions for that honor (based on the aforementioned strength of victory), then go head-to-head with the Seahawks and win that tiebreaker. You will have read the last two sections for nothing! What if the Lions, Seahawks and Packers all finish at 9-8? Well, don't cheer against Carolina this week, since the Lions are playing the Panthers, and if the Panthers win that game, this tiebreaker won't even matter. ![]() Thanks, guys).Ĭheer against teams the Lions beat or will beat (Washington and the Giants, whom you're already cheering against, plus Jacksonville, the Jets and Carolina). If you want some next-level cheering priorities, pull for teams that the Packers have beaten (or will beat, theoretically) that aren't also somewhere on Detroit's schedule (Tampa Bay, New England, Dallas, Miami and the Rams. Aside from cheering against the teams above, what should Packers fans be hoping for? Don't expect these two teams to tie in strength-of-victory with the Lions having two ties on their ledger here, but for what it's worth, the next tiebreaker is strength of overall schedule. Same with Minnesota against the Giants (although the Packers prefer the Vikings win to keep the possibility of catching the Giants in play).īasically there's a list of 21 games over the final three weeks that will impact these numbers. In our scenario, both teams have beaten Chicago twice. ![]() The Bears also have a game that doesn't matter against Buffalo because it counts the same either way for Green Bay or Detroit. Four upcoming NFL games feature this quirk for Green Bay or Detroit, so we included those in the calculation, as well. The Lions have beaten both those teams, so either way you slice it, Detroit will get a 1-1 added to their strength-of-victory ledger. For example, Jacksonville and the Jets meet in Thursday Night Football this week. Not only that, but some upcoming games can be chalked up as washes. Those teams (like Miami and Minnesota) also get credited with a loss on their ledger for a theoretical loss to Green Bay or Detroit. So the strength-of-victory percentages we calculate already assume the Packers and Lions closed with 9-8 records, and they count the records of teams they haven't yet played. That means Green Bay defeats teams still on the schedule with good records (Miami, Minnesota and Detroit). But remember, to get this far into our scenario, the Lions and Packers finish 9-8 otherwise this tiebreaker doesn't even matter. Those percentages on ESPN are the current win-loss percentages of the teams those squads have already beaten. So how did we get numbers that are much closer together (with Green Bay in the lead, no less)? 393 for strength of victory and Detroit at. If you check out the current strength-of-victory on ESPN's playoff standings, you'll see Green Bay at. In other words, sure the Packers might have the projected tiebreaker advantage for now, but it would be for the best if the Lions took one more loss aside from Green Bay. If we calculate as much as we can, Green Bay would hold the narrowest of margins, a mark of 45.99% win percentage for the opponents it has beaten (or will beat), while Detroit sits at 45.32%. The teams would be tied in our scenario where both finish 9-8.įifth tiebreaker: Strength of victory. The Packers are likewise 4-6 and would move to 6-6.įourth tiebreaker: NFC record. The Lions are 5-6 in those games and would finish 6-6 in our scenario. Detroit's schedule includes Philadelphia, Washington, Minnesota, New England, Dallas, Miami, Chicago, the Giants and Buffalo and the Jets. Both would finish 4-2 in our win-out scenario. Let's consult the tiebreakers!įirst tiebreaker: Head to head. Remember the Packers win out in our scenario, so that means they beat the Lions in the season finale, and the best Detroit can do is tie Green Bay at 9-8. © TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS.Teams to face: at Carolina (5-9), vs.
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